Wednesday briefing: Can ​the latest ceasefire ​talks in London ​break the ​stalemate in Ukraine? | Russia

Good morning.

Representatives from the US, Britain and France are gathering in London today to resume discussions with Ukrainian officials on a possible ceasefire in the war. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, was scheduled to attend but announced at the last minute he would no longer be present – the White House’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, will be there in his place.

Overnight, the US website Axios reported that Kellogg is arriving with a full, “final” US-Russia peace plan that reportedly includes official US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and unofficial recognition of Russian control of nearly all areas occupied since the start of the invasion. Axios cited sources with direct knowledge of the proposal. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has made clear Kyiv has not been privy to any such negotiations and said on Tuesday that “there is nothing to talk about. This violates our constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine.”

This latest phase of talks follows a dubious 30-hour truce and several weeks of intensified Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including a particularly brutal strike that killed at least 35 people in the north-eastern city of Sumy on Palm Sunday.

The months of deadlock has frustrated Trump – last week, Rubio threatened that the president might ditch the process altogether if a resolution could not be found soon. “We are not going to continue with this endeavour for weeks and months on end,” Rubio said, adding that the US had “other priorities to focus on”.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke with the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, about the status of the peace talks, and what we can expect this week. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Tariffs | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of a “major negative shock” from Donald Trump’s tariffs and has cut growth forecasts for every major global economy. The lender cut the UK’s expected growth from 1.6% to 1.1%, a downward trend mirrored across the world.

2. British Steel | Redundancy plans have been halted after the government took control of the Scunthorpe steelworks this month, potentially saving up to 2,700 jobs.

3. US | Republican lawmakers have followed Donald Trump’s lead and rallied behind Pete Hegesth, the beleaguered US secretary of defence, who has defended his use of the Signal messaging app to share details of US military strikes on Yemen to a group including his wife and brother.

4. UK | Number 10 has said that Keir Starmer no longer argues that trans women are women. Starmer said yesterday that he welcomed the “real clarity” of last week’s supreme court ruling on gender recognition.

5. Health | More than 150,000 additional people in England are living with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) – or ME – than previously thought, with the total number thought to be about 404,000.

In depth: A win-win for Russia?

Last week, Emmanuel Macron hosted peace talks in Paris in an effort to reassert Europe’s role in bringing an end to the war in Ukraine. “Everyone wants to achieve peace – a robust and sustainable peace. The question is about phasing,” the French president said. The talks suggest Trump, increasingly frustrated by his inability to end the war in the decisive manner he promised, is seeking to involve Europe more directly in the negotiations – though it remains unclear whether any real progress is being made.

Russia at the table

Though Vladimir Putin has paid lip service to the idea of peace – even going so far as to express a willingness to engage in bilateral talks with Ukraine for the first time in years – he has not seemed “particularly serious in his desire”, Dan says, in part because Moscow has continued to pursue its maximalist objectives of controlling all of Ukraine’s partially occupied provinces – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

However, according to a report in the Financial Times, the Kremlin has said that it would halt its invasion of Ukraine along the current frontline if the US agreed that Crimea belonged to Russia. Ukraine has rejected any Russian claim on Crimea and reiterated that discussions should take place around the table, not in the headlines.

The overall US proposal, thought to be linked to Trump’s threats to walk away from the table completely, is perhaps the first time since the early days of the war that Moscow is stepping back from its maximalist demands. On top of “de-facto recognition” of most of the occupied territories, the plan reported by Axios also includes assurances to Russia that Ukraine will not become a part of Nato, the lifting of sanctions against Russia and bigger economic cooperation between Russia and the US.

In a previous attempt to pressure Kyiv into agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire, Trump has suspended all US military aid to Ukraine and blocked billions in critical shipments. There will likely be renewed pressure to accept these news terms.

The change in Russia’s demands comes after Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, whom Ukraine has accused of peddling Russian narratives, met with Putin for several hours last week.

What now?

After today’s meetings in London, the US is expected to relay Ukraine’s response to Putin, as Witkoff is set to visit Moscow later this week in his fourth meeting with the Russian president.

Ukraine’s priority seems to still be a 30-day ceasefire, as opposed to pivoting to this new US-led framework. How this will shake out in negotiations, as Trump grows increasingly tempestuous, is unclear.

What if the US walks away?

Bringing an end to this war has proven far more difficult than the Trump administration had hoped. Rubio’s suggestion that the US may be willing to withdraw from the talks and remove itself from the situation entirely, represent the most explicit expression of frustration and impatience so far. “To try and bring about peace is an action, but to not be involved is also an action that has consequences, such is the weight of US power,” Dan says.

So what might that look like? US military aid and funding to Ukraine has already dropped significantly, with European allies stepping in to try to fill the gap. However, a complete withdrawal by Washington could still have serious consequences. “They could shut off some of the intelligence sharing, make it difficult for Ukraine to operate certain US-supplied weapons systems, which would certainly worsen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield, though it is unclear how much worse it would become,” Dan adds.

“In any event, it would affect Ukrainian morale and their determination to resist Russian aggression.”

Whether or not Trump ultimately walks away, this is a win-win scenario for Russia, Andrew Roth writes in his analysis: Russia is “either taking a favourable deal with the White House or waiting for Trump to lose patience”.

What else we’ve been reading

• A global survey has found that 89% of people across the world want stronger action on the climate crisis but trap themselves in a “spiral of silence” because they think they’re in the minority. Damian Carrington spoke to experts who said that making people aware that theirs is the majority view could unlock a “social tipping point”. Annie Kelly

• Now more than ever, it “seems that Congress – with both houses controlled by Republicans – exists to do little else but flatter the man who lives at the other end of the Mall, and ratify his edicts” writes Antonia Hitchens in the New Yorker, in a comprehensive (and chilling) piece that lays bare the extent of the sycophancy and unquestioning loyalty that define the Trump White House. Nimo

• On 27 February 2010, Pedro Niada woke in the middle of the night to find his house being swept into the south Pacific Ocean by a colossal tsunami wave. His story of how he and his family survived is a gripping read by Jonathan Franklin. Annie

• Last month, the government announced plans to get rid of the leasehold system and switch it out with a new law that makes all new build flats commonhold. Jessica Murray and Robyn Vinter helpfully explain what that means in practice. Nimo

• “Good honest folk in this country are paying for this”; the cost of spiralling energy theft across the UK is laid bare in this report by energy correspondent Jill Ambrose who investigated how cannabis farms and bitcoin miners pile an extra £50 a year on every one of the country’s household bills. Annie

Sport

Football | Matheus Nunes scored in stoppage time to hand Manchester City a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa and give the hosts a major advantage in the top-five race.

Rugby union | England’s most-capped player, Ben Youngs, will be retiring from professional rugby after representing England a record 127 times. Youngs made his professional club rugby debut as a 17-year-old for Leicester and has been a one-club player ever since.

Golf | The Royal & Ancient Golf Club of St Andrews (R&A) has said it would “love” Donald Trump’s Turnberry golf course to host the golf Open Championship in July, a reversal of its decision in 2021 that Trump’s course would not be used to stage championships after the 6 January attack on the US Capitol.

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