Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, predicts more winter

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. (KDKA) — Punxsutawney Phil is predicting six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at Gobbler’s Knob Sunday morning. 

Thousands of people gather every Feb. 2 to watch Phil make his big prediction at Gobbler’s Knob, about an hour and a half drive from Pittsburgh in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. This year’s crowd was one of the largest ever, Inner Circle President Tom Dunkel said.  

After knocking on Phil’s burrow three times, the Inner Circle pulled Phil out of his stump. The Inner Circle’s president used his cane to speak “Groundhogese” with Phil, who chose the scroll containing his prediction. With a flourish, the scroll was unrolled and read. 

“It’s Groundhog Day and maybe life is on a loop, but I miss my burrow, I miss my coop. So I’m heading back down, there’s a shadow up here. Get ready for six more weeks of winter this year,” the scroll read. 

What is Groundhog Day?

According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Groundhog Day has roots in the Christian religious holiday of Candlemas Day, which, through an old folk song, became tied to weather prognostication. 

Once the tradition was introduced to Germany, an animal started predicting the winter. If, according to German lore, the hedgehog saw his shadow on Candlemas Day, there would be a “second winter.” 

When the German settlers came to the United States, in lieu of hedgehogs, they chose another hibernating animal: groundhogs. 

The club says Groundhog Day was mentioned in the local newspaper for the first time in 1886. The next year brought the first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob, where thousands now gather every Feb. 2 to wait for Phil’s prediction.

This year’s celebration is notable because it’s Phil’s first as a father. He and his “wife” Phyllis welcomed twins last March, which the public helped name Sunny and Shadow.  

According to lore, there is only one Punxsutawney Phil, the same way there is only one Easter Bunny and Santa Claus. Phil’s Inner Groundhog Club attributes his longevity to the elixir of life, which he drinks every summer. 

How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?

Phil has been predicting the weather for nearly 140 years, but practice might not quite make perfect. 

Between 2014 and 2023, Phil was right 30% of the time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says. He was correct in predicting a longer winter in 2014 and an early spring in 2016 and 2020. 

Since 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 107 times. He’s forecasted an early spring 20 times, and for 10 years, there was no record, according to the NOAA’s data. 

To be fair, the NOAA says it’s tough to predict the arrival of springtime for an entire country, especially one with varied regional climates like the United States. After all, he’s a groundhog, not a meteorologist.